Vehicle EconomicsNew Car Reservation Deposit Worth It Calculator
Weigh a refundable reservation deposit's opportunity cost against the price-lock value it buys you.
Why this comes up
Refundable reservation deposits are common for new EVs and high-demand models with long wait times, and buyers rarely stop to price what holding that deposit is actually costing them versus what it locks in. This engine weighs the opportunity cost of the held cash against the expected value of locking in today's price.
How we calculated this
Opportunity cost is the deposit amount times your stated alternative annual return, scaled to the months you expect to hold it. Expected lock value is your stated probability of a price change times the size of that change, a positive expected price change (a price increase) rewards locking in, a negative one (a price drop) works against it.
Worked example, using this page's own defaults ($500 deposit, 9 months held, 4.5% alternative return, 40% chance of a $1,500 price increase): run the calculator above to see the exact net value of holding the reservation.
What this means
- The opportunity cost of a modest deposit is usually small, the real question is almost always your price-change probability and size estimate.
- A fully refundable deposit has no downside beyond the opportunity cost modeled here, a non-refundable deposit needs a separate downside estimate added.
- Reserving an EV specifically? See the EV Federal Tax Credit Break-Even Calculator once you know your delivery timeline and credit eligibility.
Limitations
This assumes the deposit is fully refundable if you cancel; confirm the manufacturer's actual refund policy before relying on that assumption. SeeMethodology.
Methodology
This engine uses Vehicle Economics' break-even framing as an opportunity-cost-versus-expected-value model. See Methodology for the full detail.